Morgan Stanley says 35% chance of Sensex hitting 16,000

Mumbai:Morgan Stanley says RBI’s cash tightening measures last month have made Indian shares much more vulnerable to global cues, especially the expected tapering of U.S. monetary stimulus.”As RBI’s moves echo into the economy, we believe that share prices in India are likely to fall led by banks,” Morgan Stanley said in a note dated Wednesday.Morgan Stanley cut its bear-case scenario index target for the BSE Sensex to 16,200 from 17,912 while raising the probability of such a scenario to 35 per cent from 20 per cent.
The bank maintains its base case target at 21,500 points, with a 60 per cent probability, while maintaining its bull case target at 23,000 points, though reducing the probability of that scenario to 5 per cent from 20 per cent.As of 11:13 a.m., the BSE Sensex was trading up 0.04 per cent at 18,671.51.